NFL Draft Profile: Caleb Williams
Breaking down the best QB talent in college football since Andrew Luck
Games Evaluated
@Notre Dame 2023, @Oregon 2023, vs. Utah 2022 (PAC 12 Championship)
2023 Stats
68% Completion %, 3,633 Passing Yards, 30 Passing TDs, 5 INTs, 11 Rushing TDs
2023 Advanced Stats
170.1 QB Rating, 8% Touchdown %, 9.4 Yards per attempt (all top 15 in the nation)
What I Liked
Williams’ arm talent speaks for itself. Similar to a Mahomes or an Allen, he can make every single throw on the field with total ease. His accuracy has improved every year he’s played, finishing his Junior year at USC with a near 69% completion percentage. Not only does Williams have unique arm talent, but he also has high-end straight line speed for the position. He will walk into the league and be a difference maker in the run game, even if there is a learning curve in the passing game.
A lot has been made about Williams holding onto the ball too long. I think there are instances where he should have just thrown it away - however I think there times where his high time to throw is impressive. For example in the Notre Dame game, the USC offensive line got dog walked all night and Williams continued to buy time. That game also demonstrated his toughness, as they were down multiple scores most of the night and even when he was getting pounded he kept the same level of intensity.
What I Didn’t
At times the past two seasons, but especially in 2023, Williams fell into playing a hero ball mentality. This would lead to forcing throws into extremely tight windows, not giving up the ball on options when he’s supposed to and most importantly taking too many sacks. Although he has the talent to get away with a lot of these things, sometimes it’s just unnecessary.
I’m not knocking Caleb for trying to make winning plays, and some of these issues do not solely fall on him. For starters, his offensive line has been pretty miserable. You will hear the argument that similar to a Russell Wilson, his mobility is actually a bad thing, and the lineman not knowing where he is behind them leads to sacks. However every game I watched you can count on two hands the amount of times multiple people got bull rushed and the play was broken down before it even started.
Williams coaching and talent around him at the next level will play a factor in this as well. He may be paired with Ben Johnson and a great offensive line at the next level and these gripes could end up being non issues. The best example I’ve seen of this in the NFL was Lamar Jackson in 2021. Prior to getting hurt Lamar was playing amazing football on a roster that was devastated by injuries and a line that could not protect. However at times he would force these really strange throws into nonexistent windows, all because he was trying just a little too hard, and his talent allowed him to get away with it enough where he truly believed he could make these impossible throws. However now in 2023, Jackson is in a new Todd Monken offense that schemes people open and doesn’t make him feel like he has to force the issue. I believe a competent play caller and offensive line could have the same affect on Williams.
Overall Grade
1st Overall Pick, Generational Talent, 3rd Best College QB Talent since I’ve been alive (Luck, Lawrence)
Player Comp
Bigger Kyler Murray
Summary
In the wrong scheme, Caleb Williams will be a productive player that is going to put up stats and cover up a lot of holes on an offense - similar to what he had to do this season at USC. However in a scheme that allows him to play within structure and can scheme receivers open, i.e. Ben Johnson/any Shanahan disciple? We could be looking at a Mahomes level, franchise altering talent.